Luxury is entering a new phase, shaped as much by geopolitics as by consumer taste, building on lessons from past disruptions such as the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic. Once buoyed by rising wealth and global mobility, the sector now faces mounting geopolitical frictions and shifting consumer priorities after a slight contraction in 2024 – a normalisation following years of expansion. As Lamborghini CEO Stephan Winkelmann notes, “We are not immune to economic fluctuations, and the current uncertainty influences our customers’ purchasing decisions.”1

Against this backdrop, US tariffs are reshaping global trade flows, brands are recalibrating growth models and younger generations are redefining what luxury means. The result is an industry adapting on multiple fronts – commercial, cultural, and environmental.

Inside the new luxury landscape: navigating US tariffs and global trade

A shifting world order has added another layer of complexity to global trade, and the luxury sector is no exception. The recent wave of US tariffs on economies worldwide illustrates how political decisions ripple through supply chains, reshaping pricing, and consumer behaviour. Emblematic luxury goods such as Swiss watches, French couture or Italian sports cars now face the challenge of preserving authenticity while navigating an increasingly fragmented global marketplace.

The impact is uneven across economies. Japan has recorded a sixth consecutive month of export contraction1, while Switzerland’s overall exports to the US rose 43% in late 2025 driven by pharmaceuticals and gold. Yet its watch sector – with the US as its largest market – fell sharply, down 56% from August to September after stockpiling ahead of tariff enforcement.3 Earlier in the year, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs had cautioned that punitive 39% US tariffs could weigh on 2026 growth.4 The outlook has improved following the agreement reached in November: the US will reduce its tariff rate to 15%, bringing it into line with the European Union, while Switzerland has committed to USD 200 billion of investment in the US. This adjustment lowers the expected impact of tariffs on the Swiss economy and offers a more favourable setting for export-oriented sectors. The agreement still requires formal implementation in early 2026.